Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3489 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 3489 SJC 06:30 → SAN 08:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4513 SJC 19:00 → SAN 20:25 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3489 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	SAN 08:00	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 4261 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:25	SAN 09:50	16%	3%	0.7%	78%
WN 3507 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:00	SAN 10:25	19%	4%	0.7%	73%
AS 1623 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:13	SAN 08:43	26%	4%	0.8%	75%
AS 3499 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:09	SAN 10:45	27%	8%	0.8%	73%
AS 3429 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 15:15	SAN 16:49	28%	10%	0.8%	67%
AS 3059 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 10:03	SAN 11:43	28%	8%	0.9%	79%
OO 3426 SkyWest	SJC 10:32	SAN 12:19	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:05	SAN 11:30	30%	6%	0.7%	69%
WN 3698 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:50	SAN 13:15	30%	8%	0.7%	56%
AS 3211 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:02	SAN 18:36	32%	10%	0.9%	61%
WN 4811 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:30	SAN 13:55	33%	8%	0.7%	29%
WN 4265 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:05	SAN 22:35	40%	13%	0.7%	48%
WN 3700 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:45	SAN 15:10	40%	9%	0.7%	50%
WN 3702 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	SAN 18:25	44%	12%	0.7%	52%
WN 3701 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SAN 16:20	45%	10%	0.7%	46%
WN 3526 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:45	SAN 19:10	47%	13%	0.7%	44%
WN 4513 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:00	SAN 20:25	48%	14%	0.7%	33%
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON