Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3632 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3632 SJC 06:00 → SEA 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 481 SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3632 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	SEA 08:20	4%	1%	0.5%	100%
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	9%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	11%	6%	0.5%	92%
AS 1314 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 06:17	SEA 08:34	12%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	17%	7%	0.6%	88%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	19%	7%	0.6%	85%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	19%	8%	0.6%	87%
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	23%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
WN 3705 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:55	SEA 00:10	31%	12%	0.6%	64%
WN 4982 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:10	SEA 16:20	33%	9%	0.5%	76%
AS 1413 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 17:28	SEA 19:39	34%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1436 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 21:38	SEA 23:47	36%	8%	0.7%	69%
AS 1426 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:20	SEA 10:31	37%	5%	0.7%	41%
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 14:16	SEA 16:27	38%	7%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
AS 481 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 18:45	SEA 21:00	41%	10%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON