Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3707 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3707 SJC 06:30 → SNA 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3713 SJC 17:00 → SNA 18:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3707 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	SNA 07:55	3%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:25	SNA 09:50	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 3626 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:30	SNA 10:55	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
WN 3710 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:05	SNA 13:30	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 397 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:00	SNA 14:25	17%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 3712 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:15	SNA 16:35	23%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 3210 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:40	SNA 21:05	25%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 3714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:30	SNA 19:55	28%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 3713 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	SNA 18:20	29%	6%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON