Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1763 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 1763 SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2871 SJU 17:15 → ATL 21:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1763 Delta Flight history →	SJU 07:30	ATL 11:14	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 1879 Delta Flight history →	SJU 06:00	ATL 09:45	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 1757 Delta Flight history →	SJU 12:50	ATL 16:40	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:42	ATL 18:36	10%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	SJU 17:50	ATL 21:49	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
F9 2871 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:15	ATL 21:24	41%	11%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON