Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1780 at 14:08 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1780 SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 462 SJU 20:35 → BOS 00:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1780 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:08	BOS 18:19	20%	8%	0.8%	80%
B6 562 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	BOS 09:01	22%	6%	0.9%	80%
B6 808 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 16:20	BOS 20:27	36%	18%	0.9%	67%
B6 762 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:36	BOS 21:43	38%	17%	0.9%	62%
B6 462 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:35	BOS 00:40	39%	19%	1.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON