tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 634 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 18:29 BUF 23:07 25% 11% 1.2% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SJU 00:59 → ORD 05:04AA 2592 1h 42m Chicago ORD 06:46 → BUF 09:37AA 4413 · flown by Republic 8h 38m 96% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SJU 05:30 → BWI 09:40WN 3717 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762 6h 35m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 15m Newark EWR 08:25 → BUF 09:53UA 3529 · flown by Republic 8h 53m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53UA 2089 2h 02m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 9h 01m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 33m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 3h 47m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 37m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022 1h 38m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 05m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 17m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON