Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3187 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3187 SJU 07:25 → CLT 11:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3003 SJU 15:36 → CLT 19:33 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3187 American Flight history →	SJU 07:25	CLT 11:15	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	17%	4%	0.8%	84%
F9 3003 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:36	CLT 19:33	38%	9%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON