tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Dulles, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1368 United Flight history → SJU 13:40 DEN 18:15 13% 3% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 02:05 → IAH 06:01UA 2495 2h 29m Houston IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 10h 00m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022 1h 27m Dulles IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 9h 22m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 3h 19m Houston IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066 11h 02m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 27m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 9h 35m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 9h 00m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 40m Houston IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 9h 17m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SJU 00:59 → ORD 05:04AA 2592 1h 41m Chicago ORD 06:45 → DEN 08:28AA 1747 9h 29m 96% 83%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 05:01 → JFK 08:54B6 2904 1h 36m New York JFK 10:30 → DEN 13:11B6 1497 10h 10m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:38 → MIA 19:33AA 2581 58m Miami MIA 20:31 → DEN 22:54AA 1737 8h 16m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON