Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1847 SJU 05:45 → DFW 10:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest F9 2219 SJU 06:32 → DFW 10:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1847 American Flight history →	SJU 05:45	DFW 10:00	11%	4%	0.9%	72%
AA 2742 American Flight history →	SJU 00:58	DFW 05:00	14%	6%	0.9%	91%
F9 2219 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:32	DFW 10:41	15%	6%	1.4%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:55AA 2817	1h 10m Miami	MIA 10:05 → DFW 12:17AA 3081	7h 17m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 23m	91%	73%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 05:01 → FLL 07:40B6 754	55m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 08:35 → DFW 10:44B6 979	6h 43m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON