Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1913 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:21	DTW 19:03	13%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 02:05 → IAH 06:01UA 2495	3h 44m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	11h 37m	100%	89%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	3h 05m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	10h 59m	100%	87%
United Details →	SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 12:55 → DTW 14:34UA 3495 · flown by Republic	7h 14m	98%	87%
American Details →	SJU 00:59 → ORD 05:04AA 2592	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 07:15 → DTW 09:49AA 4103 · flown by Envoy	8h 50m	98%	87%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 20m Newark	EWR 07:30 → DTW 09:31UA 3672 · flown by Republic	8h 31m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854	1h 29m New York	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	7h 25m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	97%	83%
American Details →	SJU 00:58 → DFW 05:00AA 2742	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → DTW 10:52AA 1792	9h 54m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 17:15 → ATL 21:24F9 2871	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 +1F9 1264	7h 25m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON