Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2219 at 01:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2219 SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1990 SJU 20:04 → EWR 00:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2219 United Flight history →	SJU 01:00	EWR 05:10	15%	4%	1.1%	85%
B6 2890 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 06:00	EWR 09:59	17%	5%	1.1%	88%
UA 2036 United Flight history →	SJU 18:45	EWR 22:55	18%	7%	1.1%	84%
UA 1173 United Flight history →	SJU 13:25	EWR 17:39	20%	7%	1.0%	66%
B6 1390 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:52	EWR 21:55	33%	11%	1.6%	63%
B6 1990 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:04	EWR 00:04	34%	13%	1.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON