tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2022 United Flight history → SJU 07:20 IAD 11:21 6% 2% 0.7% 96%
UA 2024 United Flight history → SJU 16:55 IAD 20:56 10% 4% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 8h 01m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SJU 00:58 → DFW 05:00AA 2742 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:05 → IAD 11:07AA 1906 10h 09m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJU 02:05 → IAH 06:01UA 2495 1h 19m Houston IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 9h 23m 94% 86%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53UA 2089 4h 00m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 11h 22m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 9h 16m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 35m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 8h 52m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 9h 30m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088 1h 25m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 8h 49m 94% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON