Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1644 SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 668 SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1644 United Flight history →	SJU 07:00	IAH 10:53	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 2495 United Flight history →	SJU 02:05	IAH 06:01	8%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 668 United Flight history →	SJU 14:55	IAH 18:51	13%	4%	0.7%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 03m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 07m	88%	70%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 09:42 → FLL 12:23B6 2154	1h 22m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 13:45 → IAH 15:47B6 2379	7h 05m	88%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON