Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1854 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 1854 SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 704 SJU 22:45 → JFK 02:39 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1854 Delta Flight history →	SJU 07:35	JFK 11:30	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 1966 Delta Flight history →	SJU 13:10	JFK 17:19	12%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 1961 Delta Flight history →	SJU 17:50	JFK 22:04	14%	6%	1.0%	87%
B6 904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:55	JFK 11:52	16%	4%	0.9%	75%
B6 2904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	JFK 08:54	18%	4%	0.9%	84%
B6 1104 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 12:04	JFK 16:01	22%	9%	0.8%	75%
B6 1604 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 13:10	JFK 17:07	29%	10%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
B6 304 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:30	JFK 22:28	30%	12%	1.1%	71%
B6 1004 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:17	JFK 19:15	30%	11%	1.0%	69%
B6 504 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:07	JFK 00:04	37%	14%	1.5%	72%
B6 704 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 22:45	JFK 02:39	38%	13%	1.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON