Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3722 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3722 SJU 06:00 → MCO 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1334 SJU 20:30 → MCO 23:32 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3722 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 06:00	MCO 09:00	4%	2%	11.2%	92%
WN 3721 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 05:00	MCO 08:00	4%	2%	11.8%	95%
WN 3723 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 09:50	MCO 12:55	9%	3%	15.5%	86%
B6 1434 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	MCO 08:01	9%	5%	13.6%	80%
WN 2592 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 11:35	MCO 14:40	14%	4%	17.6%	79%
B6 722 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:52	MCO 11:57	15%	5%	15.7%	80%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 08:52	MCO 11:59	16%	5%	16.1%	88%
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 02:20	MCO 05:19	16%	7%	1.4%	83%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 10:30	MCO 13:35	17%	7%	16.4%	81%
WN 4959 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 13:15	MCO 16:25	19%	6%	15.5%	72%
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	21%	6%	2.1%	81%
WN 3728 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 22:20	MCO 01:20	24%	8%	15.6%	65%
WN 4613 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 18:30	MCO 21:30	24%	9%	15.6%	60%
F9 4725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 12:21	MCO 15:35	25%	8%	17.2%	67%
WN 1729 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 20:15	MCO 23:20	26%	11%	17.6%	75%
B6 228 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:54	MCO 22:01	28%	12%	17.7%	68%
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:09	MCO 21:21	30%	10%	18.1%	86%worse than usual
F9 3505 Frontier	SJU 22:48	MCO 01:57	31%	11%	18.0%	no record
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 21:39	MCO 00:42	31%	14%	17.8%	70%
B6 334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:58	MCO 19:06	32%	11%	17.5%	69%
F9 1745 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 20:37	MCO 23:46	32%	11%	18.9%	69%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:30	MCO 23:32	34%	13%	18.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON