Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2817 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2817 SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2581 SJU 16:38 → MIA 19:33 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2817 American Flight history →	SJU 06:00	MIA 08:55	10%	3%	1.3%	95%
AA 3001 American Flight history →	SJU 10:35	MIA 13:21	16%	6%	1.5%	89%
F9 3377 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 07:30	MIA 10:15	17%	5%	2.0%	81%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	SJU 11:54	MIA 14:43	19%	6%	1.7%	89%
AA 3165 American Flight history →	SJU 19:14	MIA 22:05	27%	10%	2.1%	73%
AA 2584 American Flight history →	SJU 15:02	MIA 17:53	29%	10%	1.6%	76%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	SJU 16:38	MIA 19:33	29%	10%	2.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON