Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2089 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2089 SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3345 SJU 19:14 → ORD 23:27 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2089 United Flight history →	SJU 07:40	ORD 11:53	7%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 2592 American Flight history →	SJU 00:59	ORD 05:04	12%	5%	1.2%	91%
UA 2088 United Flight history →	SJU 15:56	ORD 20:15	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
F9 3345 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 19:14	ORD 23:27	34%	11%	1.8%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → ORD 23:31UA 1738	7h 36m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	7h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	7h 03m	84%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON