tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 928 at 11:44, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 928 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 11:44 ORF 15:18 23% 6% 1.0% 89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022 1h 44m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 6h 57m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SJU 00:59 → ORD 05:04AA 2592 2h 56m Chicago ORD 08:00 → ORF 11:28AA 4643 · flown by Republic 10h 29m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 2h 50m Newark EWR 08:00 → ORF 09:33UA 3626 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SJU 05:30 → BWI 09:40WN 3717 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → ORF 11:40WN 1070 6h 10m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 6h 45m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 37m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 9h 11m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 39m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 6h 49m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 8h 20m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON