Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3063 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 3063 SJU 07:00 → PHL 11:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1165 SJU 15:10 → PHL 19:08 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3063 American Flight history →	SJU 07:00	PHL 11:11	12%	4%	0.9%	85%
B6 1048 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:45	PHL 11:46	13%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 903 American Flight history →	SJU 14:25	PHL 18:38	20%	7%	0.8%	80%
F9 1015 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:44	PHL 10:48	24%	6%	1.1%	63%
F9 2695 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:45	PHL 21:49	42%	14%	1.4%	73%worse than usual
F9 1165 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:10	PHL 19:08	43%	12%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON