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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SJU 05:30 → BWI 09:40WN 3717 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628 6h 35m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 27m Detroit DTW 21:30 → PVD 23:36DL 3795 · flown by SkyWest 9h 15m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022 1h 14m Dulles IAD 12:35 → PVD 14:05UA 6262 · flown by Mesa 6h 45m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 8h 59m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 9h 15m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJU 07:25 → CLT 11:15AA 3187 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 13:44 → PVD 15:48AA 2318 8h 23m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJU 14:25 → PHL 18:38AA 903 3h 52m Philadelphia PHL 22:30 → PVD 23:46AA 1664 9h 21m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SJU 07:00 → PHL 11:11AA 3063 1h 56m Philadelphia PHL 13:07 → PVD 14:29AA 5189 · flown by PSA 7h 29m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 15:58 → MCO 19:06B6 334 55m Orlando MCO 20:01 → PVD 22:59B6 1075 7h 01m 66% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON