Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3730 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3730 SJU 07:00 → TPA 10:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2215 SJU 17:22 → TPA 20:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3730 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 07:00	TPA 10:05	7%	1%	16.7%	93%
B6 452 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 06:00	TPA 08:59	11%	4%	17.5%	97%
B6 2152 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 13:00	TPA 16:03	27%	9%	17.4%	67%
WN 3731 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 21:55	TPA 00:55	32%	9%	7.1%	46%
B6 2752 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:55	TPA 23:59	33%	11%	12.4%	87%worse than usual
F9 2215 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:22	TPA 20:30	38%	10%	17.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON