tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 39 Alaska Flight history → SLC 20:46 ANC 23:51 17% 4% 0.8% 83%
DL 2713 Delta Flight history → SLC 20:30 ANC 23:20 20% 4% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 9h 53m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 08:20 → PDX 09:26AS 3004 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 02m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 11:22 → PDX 12:23AS 2333 · flown by Horizon 2h 07m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1565 7h 54m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 10:39 → DEN 12:24UA 2004 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 10h 33m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 46m Denver DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10UA 394 7h 55m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 11h 50m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 9h 38m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:00 → DFW 10:44AA 2604 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:38 → ANC 18:30AA 1355 13h 30m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 1h 02m Seattle SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:08DL 931 6h 53m 74% 54%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 51m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 6h 50m 72% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 1h 15m Seattle SEA 21:15 → ANC 23:55AS 771 7h 11m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON