Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4932 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4932 SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3733 SLC 17:30 → AUS 21:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4932 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:05	AUS 09:45	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	AUS 11:25	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3955 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	AUS 14:50	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:08	AUS 17:57	22%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 2728 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	AUS 21:30	25%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 3733 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 17:30	AUS 21:15	36%	9%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON