Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 696 at 23:32 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 696 SLC 23:32 → BOS 06:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 248 SLC 23:59 → BOS 06:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 696 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:32	BOS 06:05	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 657 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	BOS 16:36	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 702 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:15	BOS 23:47	23%	6%	0.6%	79%
B6 248 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 23:59	BOS 06:30	24%	9%	1.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	51m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49UA 558	6h 34m	94%	85%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	58m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	93%	78%
Southwest Details →	SLC 07:25 → DEN 08:55WN 3738	1h 05m Denver	DEN 10:00 → BOS 16:05WN 3690	6h 40m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON