tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2079 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:27 BWI 06:00 14% 3% 0.7% 78%
WN 3735 Southwest Flight history → SLC 23:35 BWI 05:40 17% 3% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 52m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:55 → MDW 10:55WN 3749 1h 00m Chicago MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744 5h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 8h 02m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45WN 4932 1h 30m Austin AUS 11:15 → BWI 15:30WN 267 7h 25m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 3h 41m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 8h 41m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 3h 59m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 10h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 19m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 45m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:09 +1UA 1340 9h 01m 71% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 55m Chicago MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745 5h 50m 71% 51%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 20:30 → LAS 21:00WN 3745 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069 7h 15m 67% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON