Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2070 SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2602 SLC 12:15 → CLT 18:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:55	CLT 16:52	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2611 American Flight history →	SLC 23:25	CLT 05:22	16%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	SLC 12:15	CLT 18:28	20%	6%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SLC 11:25 → BNA 15:40WN 3384	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 16:40 → CLT 19:10WN 478	5h 45m	82%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON