tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 14:05, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2230 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:25 CMH 22:52 22% 6% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 3h 35m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 8h 06m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 7h 13m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45WN 4932 1h 10m Austin AUS 10:55 → CMH 14:35WN 270 6h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → CMH 15:59DL 2200 6h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 56m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → CMH 00:44 +1DL 1501 9h 09m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 12:35 → ORD 17:00UA 1178 2h 45m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SLC 12:15 → CLT 18:28AA 2602 55m Charlotte CLT 19:23 → CMH 20:56AA 1540 6h 41m 75% 57%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 5h 41m 67% 54%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 55m Chicago MDW 19:00 → CMH 21:15WN 4043 5h 10m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON