Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	DCA 16:35	17%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 44m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	3h 14m Nashville	BNA 17:00 → DCA 19:57DL 5786 · flown by Republic	8h 32m	100%	82%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	6h 59m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	SLC 06:55 → MDW 10:55WN 3749	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	6h 40m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 09m	99%	81%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678	8h 42m	95%	80%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 23m Houston	IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625	9h 46m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 56m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 14:04 → MIA 21:00AA 483	1h 10m Miami	MIA 22:10 → DCA 00:49 +1AA 708	8h 45m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON