Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1214 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1214 SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2796 SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1214 American Flight history →	SLC 05:00	DFW 08:46	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:55	DFW 11:37	8%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2604 American Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DFW 10:44	9%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2195 American Flight history →	SLC 08:00	DFW 11:47	10%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	DFW 13:30	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 2607 American Flight history →	SLC 11:18	DFW 15:06	17%	6%	0.8%	80%
DL 2811 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DFW 17:33	20%	6%	0.6%	77%
F9 3278 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 21:04	DFW 00:48	21%	11%	1.4%	76%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	SLC 14:00	DFW 17:50	23%	8%	0.8%	55%
AA 2594 American Flight history →	SLC 16:42	DFW 20:30	25%	10%	0.9%	41%
DL 2796 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	DFW 21:23	26%	7%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON