Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2289 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2289 SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2255 SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2289 Delta Flight history →	SLC 06:00	DTW 11:24	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2236 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:45	DTW 15:12	10%	3%	0.5%	94%
DL 2841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:50	DTW 05:12	15%	4%	0.5%	75%
DL 2244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DTW 19:15	15%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 2255 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:28	DTW 23:59	17%	4%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON