Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2033 SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1845 SLC 11:12 → EWR 17:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	EWR 16:49	21%	6%	0.8%	83%
DL 2038 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:38	EWR 06:00	22%	7%	1.0%	88%
UA 1845 United Flight history →	SLC 11:12	EWR 17:44	25%	9%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	6h 12m	91%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON