Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4444 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 4444 SLC 08:15 → GEG 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1024 SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4444 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:15	GEG 09:07	6%	2%	0.4%	98%
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	GEG 12:12	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	GEG 16:08	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 1466 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	GEG 23:55	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 1024 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:30	GEG 18:13	19%	6%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON