tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4234 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 20:50 GJT 21:55 6% 2% 0.5% 97%
DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 17:10 GJT 18:17 6% 2% 0.5% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714 5h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 10:39 → DEN 12:24UA 2004 3h 56m Denver DEN 16:20 → GJT 17:33UA 4770 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SLC 18:50 → PHX 19:35AA 4089 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Phoenix PHX 21:48 → GJT 00:16 +1AA 6318 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431 6h 06m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Phoenix PHX 15:53 → GJT 18:23AA 4994 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 51m Phoenix PHX 08:48 → GJT 11:31AA 4995 · flown by SkyWest 4h 18m 85% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SLC 16:42 → DFW 20:30AA 2594 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:20 → GJT 22:51AA 6442 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 68% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON