tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1430 Alaska Flight history → SLC 07:00 HNL 09:28 16% 4% 0.8% 60%
DL 316 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:45 HNL 14:19 16% 5% 1.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:30 → LAS 06:55WN 4205 1h 20m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 9h 05m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:45 → SMF 06:25WN 4981 2h 05m Sacramento SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781 9h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 38m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:15 → PHX 06:55WN 3751 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274 10h 40m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Los Angeles LAX 11:05 → HNL 13:56UA 1224 10h 11m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 13m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:15 → SFO 17:17UA 1955 1h 43m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 9h 28m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 3h 21m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 11h 08m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → HNL 14:35UA 1260 8h 46m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON