tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2264 United Flight history → SLC 09:20 IAD 15:31 11% 3% 0.6% 82%
DL 847 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:30 IAD 23:29 17% 5% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 11m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:42 → LAX 17:53UA 5456 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → IAD 05:26 +1UA 2632 10h 44m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Los Angeles LAX 12:43 → IAD 20:48UA 1635 11h 03m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 3h 33m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 3h 44m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 8h 41m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097 1h 25m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837 8h 50m 68% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON