Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 705 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 705 SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 697 SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 705 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:59	JFK 06:18	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	22%	7%	0.6%	79%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 22:39	JFK 05:07	22%	8%	0.9%	79%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	23%	6%	0.6%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	55m Detroit	DTW 20:10 → JFK 22:12DL 1316	6h 22m	79%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON