Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4205 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4205 SLC 06:30 → LAS 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 1690 SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4205 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:30	LAS 06:55	3%	1%	0.5%	100%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:25	LAS 08:50	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 1242 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:05	LAS 11:30	16%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	LAS 12:01	21%	5%	0.6%	77%
F9 2575 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 13:47	LAS 14:21	25%	11%	1.0%	80%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:30	LAS 15:55	27%	7%	0.6%	76%
DL 1662 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	LAS 23:40	28%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 4338 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 14:50	LAS 15:15	31%	9%	0.5%	52%
WN 3745 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 20:30	LAS 21:00	35%	11%	0.5%	58%
DL 1690 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	LAS 18:04	35%	8%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON