tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Little Rock on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:00 → DAL 08:30WN 1725 1h 05m Dallas DAL 09:35 → LIT 10:45WN 4403 4h 45m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 7h 12m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy 7h 18m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 09:35 → LIT 12:54UA 5369 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Denver DEN 13:20 → LIT 16:42UA 5760 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083 9h 06m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:43 → LIT 17:05AA 4008 · flown by Envoy 8h 05m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:20 → LIT 15:58UA 5340 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:18 → ORD 20:40UA 2072 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LIT 23:37UA 5228 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 67% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON