Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2069 SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2056 SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2069 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:36	MCO 06:00	18%	5%	11.2%	85%
DL 2032 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	MCO 16:13	18%	6%	17.2%	84%
DL 2024 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:23	MCO 18:01	23%	8%	17.3%	81%
DL 2056 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	MCO 23:55	26%	7%	15.5%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SLC 07:25 → DEN 08:55WN 3738	1h 05m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MCO 15:55WN 1339	6h 30m	96%	65%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:47 → MCO 13:31AA 2081	6h 31m	95%	62%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 30m	93%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON