Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3749 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3749 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:55	MDW 10:55	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3750 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 14:05	MDW 18:05	25%	6%	0.5%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SLC 06:30 → LAS 06:55WN 4205	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	6h 25m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00WN 3737	3h 00m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	6h 50m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	SLC 05:00 → DAL 08:30WN 1725	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	6h 20m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	SLC 20:15 → SMF 20:55WN 3757	2h 55m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	8h 30m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	SLC 06:15 → PHX 06:55WN 3751	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:00 → MDW 15:15WN 4066	8h 00m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45WN 4932	3h 40m Austin	AUS 13:25 → MDW 15:55WN 359	8h 50m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:50 → LAS 15:15WN 4338	50m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	5h 55m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON