tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2515 Delta Flight history → SLC 13:40 MEM 17:40 15% 4% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00WN 3737 3h 30m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 7h 20m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 8h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26UA 1112 6h 26m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:00 → DAL 08:30WN 1725 3h 55m Dallas DAL 12:25 → MEM 13:50WN 888 7h 50m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 3h 39m Chicago ORD 15:59 → MEM 17:58UA 4742 · flown by SkyWest 8h 58m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → MEM 16:49AA 3678 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 48m Atlanta ATL 20:10 → MEM 20:35DL 2001 6h 00m 74% 59%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 50m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 6h 11m 71% 58%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 46m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → MEM 16:47DL 552 5h 52m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON