Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2040 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2040 SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 483 SLC 14:04 → MIA 21:00 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2040 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:00	MIA 05:40	16%	6%	1.0%	91%
AA 3070 American Flight history →	SLC 23:59	MIA 06:43	21%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 483 American Flight history →	SLC 14:04	MIA 21:00	39%	10%	1.1%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	56m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 45m	91%	64%
American Details →	SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest	52m Phoenix	PHX 08:49 → MIA 16:12AA 1184	6h 59m	86%	62%
American Details →	SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:45 → MIA 16:43AA 3117	6h 43m	89%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON