Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4112 at 10:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 4112 SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1723 SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:55	MSO 12:35	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3808 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:05	MSO 17:45	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1723 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	MSO 00:28	16%	5%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON