tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2100 at 09:25, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2100 Delta Flight history → SLC 09:25 MSY 13:47 10% 3% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00WN 3737 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 5h 10m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 24m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:30 → LAS 06:55WN 4205 1h 20m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → MSY 13:50WN 2280 6h 20m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45WN 4932 1h 05m Austin AUS 10:50 → MSY 12:15WN 366 5h 10m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 1h 45m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 25m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 2h 55m Detroit DTW 14:19 → MSY 15:49DL 1652 8h 49m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MSY 14:12AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 8h 12m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885 46m Atlanta ATL 17:35 → MSY 18:07DL 3132 6h 02m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 55m San Francisco SFO 12:08 → MSY 18:33UA 246 7h 44m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON