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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 623 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:30 OGG 14:08 19% 6% 1.1% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SLC 05:45 → SMF 06:25WN 4981 2h 35m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479 9h 35m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:30 → LAS 06:55WN 4205 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457 10h 05m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 10:57 → OGG 13:43UA 765 9h 58m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:46 → PDX 13:49AS 3117 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 11h 54m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:15 → SFO 17:17UA 1955 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → OGG 21:44UA 1124 9h 29m 95% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:15 → PHX 06:55WN 3751 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138 10h 25m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 40m 93% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON