Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1327 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1327 SLC 06:07 → ORD 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2413 SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1327 American Flight history →	SLC 06:07	ORD 10:30	7%	4%	0.9%	86%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	8%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1178 United Flight history →	SLC 12:35	ORD 17:00	15%	6%	0.6%	67%
UA 2072 United Flight history →	SLC 16:18	ORD 20:40	23%	8%	0.6%	66%
AA 2780 American Flight history →	SLC 16:56	ORD 21:34	24%	9%	0.9%	75%
AA 2616 American Flight history →	SLC 13:28	ORD 18:02	25%	8%	0.8%	73%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	26%	7%	0.6%	72%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	30%	8%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON