Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3004 SLC 08:20 → PDX 09:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1244 SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3004 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:20	PDX 09:26	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:37	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AS 3117 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:46	PDX 13:49	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	10%	4%	0.7%	89%
AS 3280 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:39	PDX 20:43	10%	5%	0.5%	80%
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PDX 18:18	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	15%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 2333 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SLC 11:22	PDX 12:23	9%	5%	0.0%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON