Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3057 SLC 07:01 → PHL 13:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2022 SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3057 American Flight history →	SLC 07:01	PHL 13:26	10%	4%	1.0%	84%
DL 2075 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:59	PHL 06:15	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	13%	4%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	53m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 12m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON