Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3751 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3751 SLC 06:15 → PHX 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 4949 SLC 21:10 → PHX 21:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3751 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:15	PHX 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	7%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	9%	4%	0.5%	91%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	12%	6%	0.5%	87%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	14%	5%	0.6%	86%
WN 403 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:35	PHX 12:15	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	18%	6%	0.7%	88%
AA 4089 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SLC 18:50	PHX 19:35	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
F9 3871 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:41	PHX 13:21	22%	9%	0.9%	86%
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PHX 18:07	23%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 3353 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 15:15	PHX 16:00	28%	7%	0.6%	62%
WN 3538 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 19:00	PHX 19:40	31%	11%	0.6%	50%
WN 3753 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 21:25	PHX 22:05	32%	11%	0.6%	32%
F9 4949 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 21:10	PHX 21:56	33%	14%	1.0%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON