Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3694 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3694 SLC 08:15 → PSC 09:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 1712 SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3694 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:15	PSC 09:01	7%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 3892 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:24	PSC 13:09	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 3728 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:52	PSC 16:38	9%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 1712 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	PSC 23:54	19%	4%	0.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON